Will the corona virus sink India's economy?

 02 Apr 2020 ( Perwez Anwer, MD & CEO, IBTN GROUP )
POSTER

Thousands of poor people living in the capital of India are standing in queues for the ration received by the government. The factories in which these thousands of poor used to work daily wages have stopped and their source of income has also come to a standstill. In the coming time, how will these poor people feed their family? He is worried about this.

India's Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in a press conference, "Let no one go hungry, the government is trying it".

But the queues in which thousands of poor are standing are too long and the quantity of food is not enough.

Due to the Corona virus infection, at a time when there are millions of people in India and they are taking full advantage of the online delivery system and also getting the things they want from home, at the same time thousands of people are on the streets in India. They face a crisis of livelihood and food.

This is a time of grave crisis. A lockdown has been declared for three weeks in India with 130 crore population. People have been asked to stay in homes and businesses are in complete disarray. A large number of people are working from home and there is a huge decline in productivity.

Last week, Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das announced economic measures to strengthen the economy, saying, "Countries around the world are locking up to fight an invisible killer".

The condition of India's economy was worrying even before the corona virus arrived in India.

The growth rate of the world's fastest growing economy was 4.7 percent last year. This was the lowest level of growth in six years.

In the year 2019, unemployment in India was at the highest level of 45 years and at the end of last year industrial production from eight major sectors of India fell by 5.2%. This was the worst situation in the last 14 years. To put it mildly, India's economic situation was already in bad shape.

Experts believe that because of the impact of the corona virus, where there is a crisis on people's health, on the other hand, the already weak economy may get a bigger blow.

The transition of Kovid-19 has spread at a time when India's economy is trying to recover from the slowness caused by the Modi government's 2016 decision of demonetisation. Through demonetisation, the Modi government was trying to bring black money to the fore, but in an economy like India where small businesses were dependent on cash payments, this decision broke their back. Most businesses were recovering from the effects of demonetisation that the corona virus was killed.

The unorganized sector in India employs about 94% of the country's population and contributes 45% to the economy. The lockdown has badly hit the unorganized sector as thousands of people lost their jobs overnight.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a relief package of 1.70 lakh crore rupees so that the poor 80 crore people of India can get relief from economic burden and livelihood. By putting money in accounts and arranging food security, the government is trying to help the poor, daily wage laborers, farmers and those who are deprived of basic amenities.

But will India's economy be able to overcome the recession with this little government effort. More efforts are needed to save the economy from the bad effects of this crisis.

The biggest challenge is to implement the relief package announcement at the ground level. At the time of lockdown when additional free ration has been announced, how will poor people reach it? The government should deliver food items directly to the poor with the help of army and machinery of states.

At this time, thousands of people are trapped away from their homes, in such a situation, the government should do the work of putting money in the accounts quickly and also keep the supply of food items on priority.

These are the people whose cash needs to be transferred to their accounts immediately. They have not received any kind of social security. The government should not worry about the fiscal deficit. He should borrow from RBI and spend it on the people in this calamity.

The government has made a separate announcement for the farmers in the relief package. The government will add Rs 2000 per month to farmers' accounts for three months from April. The government used to give Rs 6000 annually to the farmers.

But the help of two thousand rupees is not enough as exports have stagnated, prices will rise in urban areas as demand is increasing and prices will fall in rural areas as farmers will not be able to sell their crops.

This crisis has come at a very critical time, when the new crop is ready and waiting for the market to be sent. In a country like India where millions of people are living in poverty, experts believe that the biggest challenge before India will be how will these food items reach the cities and any country in the world in the event of a difficult lockdown. If the supply is not started then food will be wasted and Indian farmers will have to suffer heavy losses. 58% of India's total population is dependent on agriculture and agriculture contributes $ 256 billion to the country's economy.

Experts are warning that there is a possibility of increasing unemployment in India. There has been a huge decline in production due to the closure of a large number of factories.

To provide relief to people employed or engaged in small businesses, the government can help them by giving interest and tax rebate to help businesses recover.

Unemployment in India is still at a record level and if this situation continues, those working in the unorganized sector will have to face great difficulty. People working in small businesses will either be forced to work for less money or will lose their jobs. There is a discussion in many companies about how many people need to be fired.

Air travel in India is currently banned until 14 April. The shutdown has also had an impact on the aviation industry. According to an estimate by the Center for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA), the aviation industry will suffer a loss of nearly four billion dollars. It will also have an impact on the hospitality and tourism sector. Hotel and restaurant chains in India are badly affected and a large number of people are also facing the problem of not getting salary due to the presence of silence for several months.

The auto industry has also suffered heavy losses due to the shutdown and may have to bear an estimated loss of around $ 2 billion.

Experts believe that the relief package that India has announced to revive the economy due to the effects of the corona virus is one percent of the country's total GDP. Compared to Singapore, China and the United States, this relief package is like cumin in the camel's mouth.

Experts say that India should announce a big economic package soon so that the businesses that are drowning in the devastation of Corona can be brought back on track.

 

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