Why is the economy in difficult times in India?

 16 Oct 2019 ( News Bureau )
POSTER

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says that the world economy is looking so sluggish for the first time since the financial crisis a decade ago.

The Monetary Fund estimates that this year the economy of the whole world will grow by only 3 percent.

At the same time, the growth rate in India will come down to 6.1 percent this year.

In April this year, the IMF had earlier talked about India's growth rate to be 7.3 percent.

Then in July, the institution reduced its estimate for India to 7 percent.

The IMF, in its latest report of the World Economic Outlook, cut India's economic growth estimate to 6.1 percent for 2019-2020.

However, the Monetary Fund has also expected some improvement in 2020-21.

IMF chief economist Geeta Gopinath said at a press conference on Tuesday that "India's economic growth rate is expected to grow by seven percent in 2020".

The IMF said in its new report "India's economic growth rate has declined due to the weakness of some non-banking financial institutions and the negative impact on consumer and small and medium-sized businesses' ability to borrow."

Geeta said that the Indian government is working to improve the economy, but India will have to rein in its fiscal deficit.

According to the IMF, the reason for the constantly decreasing growth rate is the weak domestic demand.

The IMF forecasts economic growth for China this year at 6.1 per cent and 5.8 per cent in 2020.

China's economic growth rate in 2018 was 6.6 percent.

According to the IMF, the global growth rate will be only 3 percent this year but it is expected to be 3.4 in 2020.

The IMF also said, "The global economy is in a phase of sluggishness and we are once again reducing the growth rate of 2019 to 3 percent, which is the lowest since the decade-ago crisis. ''

This is lower than its July global growth rate estimate. In July it was reported to be 3.2 percent.

The IMF said, "The decline in economic growth rates is the main reason behind the decline in manufacturing and global trade, increase in import taxes and demand for production."

The IMF said that to deal with this problem, policy makers would have to end trade barriers, resume work on agreements, as well as reduce tensions between countries and end uncertainty in domestic policies.

The IMF believes that due to the slowdown in the global economy, growth rate in 90 percent of the countries of the world will be less this year.

The IMF said that the global economy could grow to 3.4 percent in 2020.

However, it has also warned of many dangers for this growth as it depends on the economic recovery in India as well as the economy of Argentina, Turkey and Iran currently facing severe crisis.

Geeta said, "Any wrong policy at the moment, such as no-deal Brexit or deepening trade disputes, can cause serious problems for development and employment generation."

According to the IMF, in many cases, the greatest priority is to remove uncertainty or threats to development.

Senior Congress leader P Chidambaram and former finance minister on Tuesday surrounded the government once again on the state of the economy saying, "If the good economy takes one side then the Modi government on the other side."

Chidambaram is currently lodged in Tihar Jail in Delhi in a corruption case. He congratulated Indian-origin economist Abhijeet Banerjee for winning the Nobel Prize and said that we should pay attention to what he has said about the Indian economy.

The Indian rupee fell 31 paise to a one-month low on Tuesday due to more dollar purchases amid concerns related to trade talks between the US-China.

However, the decline in crude oil prices by almost half a percent and the rally in the stock market have helped to reduce the damage.

On 15 October 2019, the rupee fell 31 paise or 0.44 per cent to close at 71.54 against the dollar in the Indian stock market. It had earlier closed at Rs 71.78 per dollar on 17 September.

 

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