Indo-China tension: What will be the outcome if there is a war between India and China?

 26 Aug 2020 ( Perwez Anwer, MD & CEO, IBTN GROUP )
POSTER

A 31-word commentary by India's Chief of Defense Staff General Bipin Rawat on 24 August 2020 made it to the front page of most newspapers and also sparked considerable discussion.

In this, he told the news agency ANI, "There is also a military option to deal with the encroachment of the Chinese army in Ladakh but it will be adopted only when negotiations at the military and diplomatic level fail."

The veterans in the defense service hardly raised eyebrows at his statement.

Lieutenant General (Retd) D.S. Hooda said, "Can the CDS say that there are no military options?" I think he was just stating facts. ''

"I didn't find anything wrong with what CDS said," says Air Marshal Anil Khosla, who retired from the post of Deputy Chief of the Indian Air Force. It was a nappy-tula statement and I think it should have come a little earlier. ''

Before extracting the implications of General Rawat's statement, we should also know about China.

China's land border is 22,000 kilometers and the coastal border is 18,000 kilometers long. Apart from this, it has also developed its infrastructure abroad which includes its base in Djibouti.

In India, the Defense Forces are controlled separately by the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Home Affairs, while China has a Central Military Commission (CMC). The CMC is said to be the major organ of the army and the commander of its military forces and is headed by the chairman and vice chairman.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is the chairman of CMC.

The CMC controls every single military force in China. These include the People's Liberation Army (PLA), PLA Navy (PLAN), PLA Air Force, (PLAAF) PLA Rocket Force (PLARF), PLA Strategic Support Force (PLASSF) and PLA Joint Logistic Support Force (PLAJLSAF).

Where every army has its own command in India. The Chinese military has five geographically defined theater commands (TCs). These include Eastern TC, Southern TC, Western TC, Northern TC and Central TC.

In the white paper on security in 2019, China's Ministry of National Defense spoke about the changes since 2012. It was said in

The combined force has reduced its capacity from 300,000 personnel while the number of active personnel is 2 million.

While the army was reduced in the army, the Airforce maintained its number of soldiers. At the same time, the number of soldiers in the Navy and PLARF was increased.

PLARF has a stock of China's nuclear and conventional missiles and was also formerly known as the Second Artillery Force.

Since 2012, a significant amount of money has been spent on the Chinese military. This money was spent on good salaries, training of the soldiers and creating a good working environment for them, buying new weapons, making new weapons, military reforms and harmonizing between different security forces.

However, many Indian defense experts are skeptical of these claims from China. Some experts believe that Chinese technology is unproven and their security forces lack combat experience.

Does India have a military option against China?

There is no doubt that the Indian Army sees itself engaged in a defensive war on the 3,488 km long Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China.

It simply means that this fight is to kill the enemy coming from the front.

"Our military strategy on China is completely different from Pakistan," says General Hooda. We are aggressive about Pakistan, threatening them in different areas, but in case of threatening China, we adopt a defensive strategy and we do not even imagine to go to war. This does not mean that we cannot attack beyond the LAC. We should do it when needed. India has formed the Mountain Strike Corps for this purpose.

In response to the Chinese incursion, can India adopt a tactical strategy and seize some of its land and bargain?

On this question, Lieutenant General Hooda says, "Such options may have been adopted first." For instance, the option of haggling by adopting a tit-for-tat strategy may seem quite provocative but I think we are in a good position and we have the military capability to respond to them. ''

Does the geographical location of Ladakh give India an edge?

On this question, the Lieutenant General Hooda says, "The area of ​​eastern Ladakh is flat and quite high. It is not hilly like LOC. The road network is also good, most of the checkpoints can be transported by car and there is no challenge to us. But it would be wrong to say that the geographical location of Ladakh is in India's favor. China's infrastructure is much better and it gives them an edge. ''

Is India's Navy-Air Force stronger than China?

What will happen if the situation in the maritime zone with China worsens? On this, a former chief of the Navy told that in that condition India will go to the area where it is in a strong position i.e. in the Indian Ocean.

He says, "I would be surprised if someone says that the Navy will be sent to attack China in the South China Sea." We can make an edge over China in the Indian Ocean itself because we know this area and most importantly, we will have more things available here than that.

Many analysts believe that the use of the Indian Air Force will be best if India moves towards the military option.

It is estimated that Indian ships will have more oil and weapons due to flying at a lower altitude from the air base. At the same time, the Chinese Air Force will fly from the Tibetan plateau and other high places where the very fine air flows, due to which they will spend more oil on keeping weapons.

But that's not all.

"It has been believed that we have the edge of T-3 - meaning technology, terrain (geography) and training," says Air Marshal (retd) Khosla, who heads the Eastern Air Command. Technically, he is ahead but there is doubt about the claims and actual potential. We have an edge in geography and training, but they are looking at these issues and solving them systematically. To reduce the difference, we need to increase our capacity qualitatively and numerically.''

He described how rapidly PLAAF has developed itself in recent years.

Air Marshal (Retd) Khosla said, "The Chinese Air Force has been part of the PLA. It is well made like any army which has all the necessities. He began to rapidly modernize his navy and air force during the Gulf War after China's economic emergence. Today his air force is rapidly increasing its capabilities.''

Where does India need to accelerate to compete with China?

Khosla says China's biggest advantage over India is its indigenous defense manufacturing base.

Due to the manufacturing base, arms supply can be done in the country itself while India is working in this direction and in future it will have to depend on imported weapons.

Apart from this, when it comes to cyber and space capabilities, China too has an edge over India.

Lt. General Satish Dua, who retired as Chief of Integrated Defense Staff, says, "China has mastered building a cyber army and has capabilities in the area we are looking to reach." Our military forces must attract the best talent. There are talent in our country but they are working with someone else instead of working with us."

China's white paper also referred to military reform. General Dua shares his experiences of military reform in India.

He says, "India currently has a cyber, space agency and a special forces division. We want this command to be strong and equipped. Even in 2013 we got permission to activate these special forces but we were able to activate them in the end of 2018. This was a very weak job. Improvements should be made to expedite the implementation of such schemes. We should stop working in the cellars. The methods of war are constantly changing, so those who want to follow the old lines need to be changed."

 

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