The economy was growing at eight percent in India five quarters ago. Now it has fallen to five percent. It is not that this decline has come suddenly.

In fact it is less than five percent because the quarterly growth rate figures are based on organized and corporate sector.

If the unorganized sector is not fully included in it, then it is assumed that the unorganized sector is also growing at the same rate as the organized sector.

But there are reports from all around that the unorganized sectors associated with industries like bicycle in Ludhiana and shoes in Agra have been shut down in large numbers.

If the growth rate of the unorganized sector is falling, then it is wrong to assume that the unorganized sector is growing at the pace of organized sector.

Our unorganized sector employs 94 percent people and produces 45 percent. If production and employment are decreasing where 94 percent of the people work, then demand decreases there.

This demand has come down since demonetization. Then after eight months, GST was affected and after that NPAs of banks were affected. After all, the crisis of the non-banking financial companies was affected.

That is, the economy has suffered three big shocks in three years, due to which unemployment has increased. CMI statistics show that the number of employees in India was 45 crore, which has come down to 41 crore.

This means that the jobs or work of 40 million people have been lost. When the income of such a large section is reduced, then obviously the demand will decrease. When demand decreases then the consumption capacity will decrease and when the capacity of consumption decreases, the investment will be reduced.

The rate of investment in India's economy topped 2012-13. At that time the rate of investment was increasing at the rate of 37 percent and it has fallen to less than 30 percent today.

Until investment does not increase, growth rate does not increase.

The problem is that it started from the unorganized sector and now it is gradually impacting the organized sector as well. For example, you can look at the automobile and FMCG sectors.

You must have heard about the decrease in demand for Parle-G Biscuits. It is an organized sector. These are used by people associated with the unorganized sector. When the income in the unorganized sector is low, the demand will decrease automatically. FMCG has the same condition.

If India's economy is growing at a rate of six or five per cent, then it is a very good pace. Why should consumption continue to decrease even after this? Investment should also have increased at a speed of five percent.

When consumption has come down, investment is not increasing, it shows that the economic growth rate is not five, six or seven percent, but it is growing at zero percent, because the statistics of the unorganized sector are not included in it. Are.

The day you add the statistics of the unorganized sector to it, you will know that the growth rate is zero or one percent. Statistics of the unorganized sector are collected once in five years. During this time it is assumed that the unorganized sector is also growing at the same speed as the organized sector.

This guessing was fine until the demonetisation, but as soon as the demonetisation took place, it had a tremendous impact. On unorganized areas and its decline began.

This method of including estimates of the growth rate of the unorganized sector in GDP figures after 8 November 2016 is incorrect.

It is also being said that the Indian economy is going through a recession. According to government data, the economy is going through a phase of slowdown, not recession. When the growth rate becomes negative, the situation is considered a recession.

But if the figures presented by the government right now are included in the unorganized sector, then the Indian economy is going through a recession.

The unorganized sector was beaten after demonetisation. After that GST was implemented. However GST does not apply to unorganized sectors.

GST has been impacted on organized sectors. Over 1400 changes have been made since the last two and a half years since GST came into force. This has led to a lot of confusion among the people in the organized sector.

People are not able to file GST. Around 1.2 crore people have registered for GST, but only 70 lakh people file GST and only 20 percent of the annual returns are filed.

So overall the GST has received a tremendous shock to the economy.

The problem starts with the unorganized sector and the organized sector is also not untouched. The government's tax collection has come down due to slowdown or slowdown in the economy. Last year, GST decreased by 80 thousand crores and Direct tax also decreased by the same amount.

In total, the government treasury lost Rs 1.6 lakh crore. When the income of the government decreased, it reduced the expenses. The recession will deepen when expenses are low.

It is now being said that the merger of banks will strengthen the economy. But this is wrong. The impact of the merger of banks will be seen after five to ten years. It will have no immediate effect.

The statements made by the government make it clear that it has accepted that the economy has weakened and a package is being announced one after the other. RBI is also announcing.

Not all of them are talking about recession right now, but gradually later everyone will start talking about recession, when the data of unorganized sector will be included.

RBI has released a package of 1.76 lakh crore rupees. It will also be used for the organized sector. No package has been announced for the unorganized sector. The package to increase employment has not been announced.

Where the problem started, those areas are not the focus of the government. Until the package is announced for these areas, there will be no improvement.

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