India is not the fastest growing economy

 01 Jun 2019 ( Perwez Anwer, MD & CEO, IBTN GROUP )
POSTER

India's economy has grown at the slowest pace in the last five years. This is clear from recent figures released by the Government of India.

These reports show that the figures could be a problem for Narendra Modi, the second time Prime Minister became a troublemaker.

Economic growth in the last financial year April 2018 to March 2019 is 6.8%. At the same time, from January to March, the rate remained only 5.8%. This rate has been behind China's growth rate for the first time in the last two years.

This means that India is no longer the fastest growing economy. It will prove to be a major challenge for India's finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman. Nirmala Sitharaman has taken over the ministry of Commerce and Defense in the first tenure of the Modi government.

The current challenge to the Modi government is that they can bring back the confidence of the people towards the economy. The Modi government has to reconcile between its Short Term and Long Term Policy.

The government's first challenge will be employment.

The Modi government was surrounded by the issue of the highest employment during its first term. According to the government report, unemployment during the year 2017-18 is the highest in the 45 years.
The experts believe that the government needs to focus on labor-sector such as building construction and textile industry so that employment can be created with immediate effect. Apart from this, the government should also work on industries like health care to enable long-term jobs to be created.

Curved export also creates a major hindrance in the way of employment.

The US has ended India's special trade status since June 5, 2019. India exports 16 percent of India's total exports. In such a way, India's economy will have a bad effect. This will increase unemployment.

The United States has banned Iran from May 1, 2019. India can not import petroleum from Iran now India used to import most petroleum from Iran, which was used by India in its currency. India has been trapped in big trouble due to restrictions on Iran. India will now have to pay in dollars for petroleum. Rupee is at 69.58 level compared to the same dollar. Rupee and will fall below. This will increase inflation.

At the new GDP rate, it is clear that India's economy is rapidly falling below.

The biggest factor in China's economic growth of India is the domestic consumption here. Domestic consumption has played the most important role in increasing the economy for the past 15 years. But with recent data, it is clear that the ability of consumers to buy has decreased.

Sales of cars-SUVs have reached the lowest point of last seven years. Sales of tractors, motorcycles and scooters have also declined. The demand for borrowing from the bank has also increased rapidly. In the recent quarters, the income growth of Hindustan Unilever has also come down. Given these facts, it can be understood that the purchasing power of the consumer has come down.

The BJP promised in its manifesto that it would cut income taxes to ensure more cash and more purchasing power in the hands of the middle income families.

Gaurang Shetty, Vice President of a brokerage company believes that the government should also cut personal and corporate tax in its next budget (July).

They say that these steps will work as a stimulant for the economy.

But the difference between India's 3.4% budget deficit, i.e. government expenditure and revenue, can prevent Modi government from doing so.

Experts believe that increasing financial losses can stop short and long term growth.

The growing agricultural crisis in India was one of the biggest challenges of Narendra Modi for his first term. Farmers from all over the country, including Delhi-Mumbai, have come to the streets demanding a fair price for their crops on many roads in India.

The BJP had decided to give 6,000 rupees annually to select farmers in its first government, although the Modi government has implemented this scheme for all farmers in the first Cabinet meeting of its second term.

This plan will provide relief for some time, but this will not work in a long time. There is a need to improve the structure of the agricultural sector.

At present, farmers sell their crops to state government agencies. Whereas farmers should be able to bargain directly in the market.

One of the BJP's election promises was that it would spend 1.44 trillion dollars on railways, roads and infrastructure. But where will such a huge amount come from? Knowledgeable believe that Modi can take the path of privatization for it.

In his first tenure, Modi has worked slow on his promises to sell government enterprises. Air India has long been in debt. The government started the process of selling its shares, but no buyer was found and Air India could not be sold.

Private investment has been lagging behind for the past few years and in the last decade, India's impressive economic growth is largely on government spending.

In his first government, Narendra Modi made a few reductions in the licensing rule, with the help of which India was able to reach the 77th position in the World Bank's mercantile list, which was 134th in the year 2014.

 

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