Country's GDP growth is estimated to slow down to 7.1% in current fiscal, from 7.6% in 2015-16, mainly due to slump in manufacturing, mining and construction sectors, the government data showed today without factoring in 'volatile' post-demonetization figures. Releasing the data compiled by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), Chief Statistician T C A Anant said the figures for November were available and examined but "it was felt in view of the policy of denotification of notes there is a high degree of volatility in theses figures and conscious decision was taken not make projection using the November figure".

Accordingly, the 'First Advance Estimates of National Income, 2016-17' did not reflect the impact of demonetization, effected on November 9 for ban of old Rs 500/1,000 notes, and are based on sectoral data for only seven months or till October. Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2016-17 is likely to attain a level of Rs 121.55 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2015-16 of Rs 113.50 lakh crore, released May 31, 2016. "The growth in GDP during 2016-17 is estimated at 7.1% as compared to the growth rate of 7.6% in 2015- 16," the CSO said.

The CSO projections on national income are now in line with the Reserve Bank's estimates, which too has lowered the GDP growth prospects to 7.1%. "Anticipated growth of real GVA at basic prices in 2016-17 is 7% against 7.2% in 2015-16," the CSO said. In value terms, the Gross Value Added (GVA) at constant prices is anticipated to increase from Rs 104.27 lakh crore in 2015-16 to Rs 111.53 lakh crore in 2016-17.

As per the data, performance of the all sectors, excluding 'agriculture' and 'public administration, defence and other services'. 'Agriculture, forestry and fishing' is expected to expand by 4.1% in 2016-17 from 1.2%. On the other hand, mining and quarrying is likely to shrink by 1.8% after recording a growth a 7.4% in 2015-16. Growth in manufacturing is expected to slow to 7.4% (from 9.3%) and construction activities to 2.9% (from 3.9%). As per the data, the per capita net national income (current prices) during 2016-17 is estimated to be Rs 1,03,007 showing a rise of 10.4% as compared to Rs 93,293 during 2015-16 with the growth rate of 7.4 percent.

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