Azerbaijan-Armenia Agreement: What will change if Russia sends peace troops to Nagorno-Karabakh?

 12 Nov 2020 ( News Bureau )
POSTER

The fighting began on 27 September 2020 in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

In this battle, Azerbaijan clearly saw victory over Armenia.

Recently, the army of Azerbaijan captured the city of Shusha (it is called Shushi in Armenia) of Nagorno-Karabakh. It was said to be a major strategic victory.

After this, Azerbaijan had its eyes on Stephankiart, the capital of Karabakh.

Many people lost their lives in this fight and many areas have suffered extensive damage. However, after the control of Shusha, Azerbaijan definitely had an edge in the battle of occupation of the capital.

This area is at high altitude, due to which the Armenian army in Karabakh could easily target Azerbaijan with ammunition.

But, in the meantime, Russia intervened and entered into a peace agreement between the two countries and sent peace forces to Stephankiart.

Control of Russia, not Turkey

Earlier everyone felt that Turkey is controlling the game by giving open support to Azerbaijan.

Russia's initiative began on the night of 9 November 2020 when the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia met online and talked about a nine-point agreement to end the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Azerbaijan was winning this battle as it had recaptured several Azeri provinces under Armenia control since 1994.

The three leaders agreed that Armenia's army would retreat from the remaining occupied territories around Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan will be controlled by these.

What will the peace army do?

The peacekeeping forces of Russia will separate the forces on both sides and ensure that the fighting does not start again.

The Russian military will also secure a five-kilometer-wide corridor connecting the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh to the main Armenia.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the growing national identity between the two countries became the reason for the Nagorno-Karabakh battle.

Azerbaijan and Armenia, both independent countries, then used the weapons left by the Soviet army to fight.

Armenia was successful in that battle. By the end of 1994, it had gained control of Nagorno-Karabakh and its surrounding seven Azerbaijan territories.

When people from each other's countries started evacuating from both sides, around one lakh people became refugees.

Azerbaijan's growing power

There has always been tension between the two countries. Minor skirmishes also occurred in between but, on 27 September 2020, Azerbaijan started a war to regain its lost territories.

It became clear very quickly that the balance of military power between the two countries had changed.

Sources of oil and gas found in the Caspian Sea came as a boon for Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan earned a lot of money by selling this oil and gas.

Azerbaijan used these funds to rebuild its economy and some people called the capital 'Baku' as 'Caspian's Dubai'.

However, the government of Azerbaijan also spent large amounts of money in strengthening its army.

He spent billions of dollars over the last several years buying better tanks, ammunition, and especially new technology.

Azerbaijan is the first country in the former Soviet Union to have used drone technology extensively in warfare.

In the opening days of the war on 27 September 2020, Azerbaijan first ended Armenia's air defense system and then used drones to drive out the Armenian army, targeting weapons and personnel.

By deploying troops, Russia is now fully controlling the situation on the ground. There are 2000 paratroopers in this army.

Armenian, Azerbaijan, and Turkish forces cannot do anything that puts the lives of Russian soldiers at risk.

Why did Russia not intervene first?

Armenian Prime Minister Nicole Pashinyan and Vladimir Putin do not have very good relations.

Pashinyan is a successful and popular leader. He became the Prime Minister of Armenia after the revolution for power conversion. The Vladimir Putin government considers such a change to be Western-backed.

Pashinyan opposed Armenia's excessive dependence on Russia and grew closer to Western nations.

After this big defeat to Azerbaijan, their political future seems to be under suspicion. Even the President of Armenia has denied having full knowledge of the agreement.

But, now the agreement has been reached and Russia has taken the entire situation under its control.

Russia wants to maintain balance on both sides. He wants to keep Armenia tied to this security pact but at the same time wants to stop attacks on him. Russia also has a good relationship with Azerbaijan.

Big win for Azerbaijan

This is a big win for Azerbaijan. People on the streets are celebrating victory.

Azerbaijan has not only withdrawn its territory in this victory, but has also ended the waiting of millions of Azerbaijan refugees who have been waiting to return to their homes for 30 years.

In Armenia, there is resentment that Russia should have interfered in this way to reduce the damage. However, they also understand that if the fight now escalates, there will be no Armenian left in Nagorno Karabakh.

It is also visible in this peace deal that the US and the European Union are completely out of it.

Armenia's occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh will end by 1 December 2020. Azerbaijan will be controlled by these. Armenians living here will have to bear the maximum brunt of this war.

It is good news that no more soldiers and common people will be killed. Also, Azeri people who have become refugees will be able to return to their homes.

However, there is no indication about the present or future situation of Nagorno-Karabakh, its administrative or legal or police system. It has been a self-proclaimed republic which no one recognizes.

Nagorno-Karabakh will certainly be controlled by Azerbaijan now.

The biggest question is that those two countries whose hatred for each other has increased more than ever, how will they now be closer to each other than before?

Given the war, the violence and blood shed in it, it is feared that these two neighbors will take years to live like neighbors.

 

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